Predicting the next German chancellor

Leading German electoral research institutes have been under pressure in recent times, as their predictions fail to account for increasing fluctuation and dilution of traditional voting patterns. Together with politik.de, idalab designed an online electoral stock exchange, allowing participants to bet on potential parliamentary coalitions and thus share their wisdom. Using a custom-built market mechanism, idalab successfully predicted the German chancellor and coalition in the 2013 parliamentary election, paving the way for faster and more fine-grained data-driven electoral research in the future.

 

Situation

  • Voting behaviour no longer plainly apprehended by traditional political surveys
  • Interactive formats needed to address voters in new and engaging ways in the digital age

Approach

  • Development of a custom market mechanism for the case of electoral prediction markets
  • Extraction of collective wisdom based on information aggregated from the prediction markets

Impact

  • Successful and highly accurate prediction of the 2013 German federal election results

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